Sell the news
Talking about the bitcoin crash.
Bitcoin ETF Launch: A Classic Sell Scenario
This week, Bitcoin ETFs finally launched, and the market reaction was textbook – sell the news. I went short on Bitcoin at $45,000, watching Ethereum interestingly benefit from Bitcoin's dip. But, if Bitcoin keeps sliding, Ethereum might follow, so I'm keeping an eye on it.
Currency Market: Walking on Thin Ice
In currency land, the Dollar Index is sending mixed signals, so I'm playing it safe. But, I've got my eye on the AUD/JPY for any breakout or breakdown.
Gold Shines Amidst Crypto Chaos
With cryptocurrencies in a whirl, gold is catching the spotlight. It's showing bullish signs, and I'm considering going long, with a safety net below $2,000.
Equity Markets: Reading the S&P 500 Tea Leaves
Over to stocks, the S&P 500, through the SPY ETF, had a strong week but is now pausing. My game plan? Buy on dips, sell on highs, and pocket profits quickly, expecting some sideways movement.
Diving into Mid and Small-Caps Mid-caps (MDY) and small-caps (IWM) are digesting their recent gains. Nvidia's strong performance is a good sign, so watch out for consolidation and possible breakouts.
Sector Spotlight: Uranium vs. Natural Gas Two sectors caught my eye: uranium (UEC) is soaring, while natural gas (UNG) is struggling but might swing up. We'll see where they head next week.
Stock Picks for the Week
GIII: A volatile stock with a 12% short float, looking interesting post-breakout.
CRSP: CRISPR tech holding up well with a 21% short float.
SVVI: New IPO, Value Village, with a 34% short float and a buy signal emerging.
BIRK: Footwear company flagging at all-time highs with a 26% short float, hinting at a potential rise.
Signing Off: Balance in Trading and Life Thanks for joining me this weekend. Remember, trading is a balance – time to unplug and enjoy the long weekend! Stay connected through my YouTube, Twitter, Substack, TikTok, Instagram – just search Michael Noss, CMT. Your support means everything.
Bitcoin as a 'currency', Bitcoin as a 'security': There is no apparent value proposition for either, yet the enthusiasts will flock like sheep to its heat, as in psychological comfort.
There are virtually uncountable ways to structure a trade that offers volatility, a key feature of BTC; do we economic actors need a speciously derived vehicle for such as that?
Some of my other objections to BTC:
* Medium of Exchange? No, as it will never achieve widespread use among populations.
* Measure of Relative Value? Hardly; its price/vol is all over the place, so what is its intrinsic value?
* Standard of Account? After the many years following its intro it still struggles to achieve that status.
* Store of Value? Not demonstrated so far and given its lingering problems, volatility and potential to attract malefactor participants from tech backgrounds (complexity enhances potential for fraud and miscreant behavior), one must question the validity and viability.....of such a 'next BIG thing'.
Will central banks share or forfeit their respective monopolies on the issuance of currency? UNlikely
Another problem rarely mentioned in the financial press: There is an extremely concentrated position in BTC, et al, that is held by an elite few speculators (M Saylor, for one); this phenomenon results in extreme manipulation to increase said concentration for ever more manipulation by taking from 'weak hands', as more amateurs enter the trading arena, having been lured by the 'promise of quick riches'; these lesser-capitalized participants are fodder for the elite traders who have vast resources for maintaining the scam through PR, propaganda and algo-driven trades as they accumulate others' capital...a 'rinse and repeat' operation; It's egregious that the regulators don't address this.
Then there is the equivalent irrelevancy that arises from some nefarious ideology, once it's discovered there's no 'THERE, there'.
ESG is one such example of an odious ideology wrapped in 'noble-sounding' rhetoric, meant to fool as many adherents as PR budgets will allow. When worldwide currency expansion is propagated at such a prodigious and alarming rate, such as in the last decade +, strange 'creatures' arise to meet the demand for 'new' ways to conduct economic human interactions. CRYPTO is one such 'creature', but don't look too closely.
This is another scam to divert attention away from REAL problems that are NOT being addressed, analogous to the Covid scam, the US intervention in Ukraine in its proxy war with Russia, et al.